US-China competition could lead to sub-par quantum tech standards

Chinese state media recently presented a new proposal for a quantum standard as a victory in the China-US technology race. Chinese participants at the International Standardization Organization meeting in Stockholm, Sweden, proposed a communication network security protocol that could resist decryption with a quantum computer. The protocol, which relates to WLAN Authentication and Privacy Infrastructure (WAPI), a Chinese alternative security technology for wireless networks, has been accepted for exploration by the International Standards Organization (ISO).

The importance of quantum-resistant security was underscored in October 2024, when Chinese scientists described how they hacked military-grade encryption in a quantum computer experiment. While this paper is a proof of concept that is far from real world use, it adds urgency to developing post-quantum secure communications.  

There are currently two paths to post-quantum secure communications: post-quantum cryptography (PQC) and quantum key distribution (QKD). While post-quantum cryptography would provide 1-to-1 replacements for current encryption algorithms, quantum key distribution would be a method of securely sharing an encryption key that could be used for encryption using any algorithm. The US National Institute of Standards and Technology has taken the lead globally on post-quantum cryptography (PQC) while China has focused on quantum key distribution.

In an ideal world, QKD and PQC would work in tandem, with QKD ensuring that keys remain secret and PQC ensuring that decryption is impossible without a key. However, as China and the US compete for leadership in quantum technology, decisions taken are not necessarily based on the suitability of technology. For instance, because Chinese representatives chaired the working group on quantum technologies, the US pushed for a new quantum technology Joint Technical Committee at a time when quantum technologies were not even fully defined.  At the same time, China ramped up support for its companies to attend international standardization meetings and consistently mentioned quantum technologies.

MERICS Senior Analyst Antonia Hmaidi says: “As both countries seem set to try to dominate international standardization in quantum specifically, cooperation is being hampered. Some standards might be created too early, while others are sub-optimal. This is because both countries want to see their approaches reflected, and the technical discussion on merit, a hallmark of international standardization, cannot happen.”